英倫金融：兔子與大前燈—行情走勢預測

除了一些例外情況之外，昨天的行情走勢發展情況基本與預期相符。預期走勢主要受英鎊兌美元和來自美元兌日元少量運行動力的拖累影響。否則，行情發展結果會更直觀地貼近預期情況。首先是英鎊兌美元，我對其價格觸及1.4114的走勢感到震驚。事實上，我的大女兒發短信問我歐元兌英鎊什麼時候價格最低，因為她要去西班牙。我打開我的圖表，發現1.4114這個價格低位已被觸及，再核查一下我的表格，85.4%投影的浪v正好是在1.4114…這個極限的投影目標並不常出現。除此以外，價格的修復走勢情況已令人滿意。
歐元兌美元也觸及了目的地區域的低點位置，但美元兌瑞士法郎到達了阻力區間，但隨後退卻了，價格運行似乎處於無序震盪狀態。傾向于展現一個相當中立的走勢或者修正的結果。也許最好的方式是任由價格自由發揮直到再次出現明朗的運行方向。對於歐元兌美元，我懷疑價格會在一段時間內維持震盪走勢。走勢會否持續到下週四的退歐公投結果公佈，這是我們需要解決的問題。
同時，澳元的走勢表現相當不錯，但現在價格似乎遊蕩到了內陸地區。最終的結果應該仍是符合預期，但看起來似乎需要滿足一個獨特的條件要求，以便令結構形態恢復常態。最好是等待價格運行極限點位的出現…
至於日元貨幣對，歐元兌日元的運行情況似乎成了美元兌日元的走勢發展動能。後者價格下行到了105.73，隨後出現超出預期的修正走勢。交叉盤出現的下跌幅度略比預期大，但隨後出現了完美的反彈，因此需要價格延續下行到更低點位。歐元兌美元和美元兌日元之間的最終平衡會顯得比較重要…這可能會產生一個令人驚訝的結果…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Rabbits and headlights…
With some exceptions yesterday basically developed as expected. The main detractor was GBPUSD and to a lesser degree USDJPY. Otherwise, the outcomes developed directionally and mostly close to expectations. To cover GBPUSD first, I have to say I was shocked to see it reach 1.4114. In fact, my eldest daughter texted me to ask when EURGBP will be at its weakest because she was off to Spain. I opened my charting and saw the 1.4114 low being hit, checked my spreadsheet and saw the 85.4% projection in the Wave v at 1.4114… This extreme projection doesn’t occur that often. Apart from that, the recovery has been satisfactory.
EURUSD also found a low in the target area but USDCHF reached a resistance area but then wimped out and appears to be wandering around drunkenly. It tends to suggest to me a rather neutral or corrective outcome. It’s probably best left alone until it has become sober again. For EURUSD I suspect a period of neutrality. Whether that can last through to the Brexit vote result on Thursday is something we’ll have to work with.
Meanwhile the Aussie performed quite well but now appears to have wandered into the outback. The end result should still be as expected but there seems to be an odd requirement for to bring the structure back into order. Best wait for the extremes to be met…
As for the JPY pairs, it almost seems as if EURJPY has been the driver of USDJPY. The latter saw losses to 105.73 but then corrected higher than expected. The cross saw losses a little firmer than expected but followed by a perfect pullback and thus needs to extend lower. The resultant balance between EURUSD and USDJPY should be quite important… This could generate quite a surprising outcome…
Good trading
Ian Copsey