波浪分析：外匯/貴金屬市場展望

這是一個破爛的讓人疲憊的幾個月...

就在我以為我們會看到歐元兌美元恢復下跌的時候......事實並非如此。昨日高點1.1712只是沒有在我的雷達上，但它已經完成了一個三進三同並在日常波浪（B）/（III）上有了51%的回撤。唯一的問題是，高峰期沒有提供極大的看跌反轉的跡象，因此我們至少需要一個看跌反轉形態。還有其他的線索 - 一個很好的跡象是在美元兌瑞郎 - 這看到了波浪-B-/-iii到85.4％回撤-的一個深度回檔。我們應該看到一個延續漲勢 - 但我們也可以用這個作為一個突破水準，如果美元有任何進一步的損失的話。
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同樣，英鎊兌美元一直是一個尷尬的狀態......從1.5329的整個恢復已經充滿了問題，一個粗略的，易變的，雜亂的，骯髒的發展，看起來更加的糾正。不過，昨日則達到了1.5802 - 在波浪[III]上僅僅超過預測目標5點。從這裡會發生什麼事是很重要的。如果它可往後上方額外的邁向1.5929那就這樣吧。如果失敗，那麼我們將直接看到這種下降。因此，警示依然存在。

歐元兌美元及英鎊兌美元的發展出現了危機，並在出現不久看到虧損的恢復，緊接著是歐元兌英鎊的迴圈增高。因此，我們應該看到歐元兌美元比英鎊兌美元下降速度更快...
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同樣，澳元已經恢復到了它週期下降的趨勢，緊接著是它在波浪[iv]上的一個相當可憐虛弱的調整。我懷疑這種發展將會斷斷續續的 - 但是，像它經常做的那樣 - 它可以為歐洲指出一條明路。

另一大事件是在美元兌日元下降到了120.41以下......這證實了125.85跟波浪（A）/（III）一樣高，因此，我之前已經提醒過的較大週期性下降，目前正在發展。這也應該是一個相當波動的下降，我懷疑目前的調整很可能是一個複雜的區間內橫向盤整。然而，這不能抗衡它的下行趨勢。這很可能會減緩歐元兌日元的下跌 - 再一次，我能看到在更多的損失之前會有一個區間內橫向盤整
最後，貴金屬超過預期的有點動盪，但是從一個格局來看，我們非常接近反轉的高點。我覺得我們有些額外的走低，但在波幅之間有一些小衝突。白銀看起來已經達到其波浪（ⅴ）中的波浪（a），而黃金才剛剛完成它的波浪（ⅳ）。兩者走勢不太平衡，因此，雖然我的偏好較低，如果在現行的波浪 (iv)上有任何漲勢，也不影響大方向走勢。大局觀表明確實會反彈...


祝交易成功！

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伊恩.科普賽
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威



'It has been a ragged and tiring few months…


Just as I thought we’d see the downside resume in EURUSD … it didn’t. Yesterday’s high at 1.1712 was just not on my radar but what it has completed is a triple three and at the 51% retracement in the daily Wave (b) / (iii). The only problem is that the peak doesn’t offer great bearish reversal indications and therefore we’ll need a bearish reversal pattern at the very least. There are other clues – and one good one is in USDCHF – that saw a deep correction in the Wave -b- / -iii- to the 85.4% retracement. We should see this extend gains again – but we can also use this as a break level if there are to be any further losses in the Dollar.
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Equally, GBPUSD has been an awkward so-and-so… The entire recovery from 1.5329 has been filled with problems, a sketchy, volatile, messy, nasty development that looks more corrective. However, yesterday it reached 1.5802 – just 5 points above the projection target in its Wave [iii]. What happens from here is important. If it can make that extra leg back above 1.5929 then so be it. If it fails, then we’ll see this decline directly. Thus, the warning signs are there.


These developments in EURUSD and GBPUSD appear at risk of soon seeing losses resume following a recycling higher in EURGBP. Thus, we should see EURUSD decline faster than GBPUSD…
Equally, the Aussie has already resumed its weekly downtrend following a rather pathetic, weak correction in its Wave [iv]. I suspect this development is going to be choppy too – but as it often does – it can lead the way for the Europeans.

Another big event was the drop below 120.41 in USDJPY… This has confirmed the 125.85 high as the Wave (a) / (iii) high and thus the larger weekly decline of which I have been warning, is now under development. It should also be a rather volatile decline and I suspect the current correction could well be a complex sideways move. However, don’t fight the downside. This may well slow down the decline in EURJPY – which again, I tend to feel could see a sideways move before stronger losses.


Finally, the metals have been a little more volatile than expected but from a pattern point of view, we’re very close to a reversal higher. I do feel we have the additional leg lower but there is a little conflict between the depth of the losses required. Silver looks to have already reached its Wave (a) of Wave (v) while Gold has only just completed the Wave (iv). This is a little lopsided and therefore, while my preference is lower, if there are any gains above the recent Wave (iv)’s don’t fight the move. The bigger picture does suggest a rally…


Have a profitable week.


Good trading