英倫金融：市場出現脫節運行情況--行情走勢預測

可以肯定的是，根據市場時不時出現的脫節走勢情況來制定有意義的市場預期是有難度的。歐元兌美元後續預期目標點位元落空，價格勉強創出一個略高點之後出現下行走勢。歐元兌美元的下跌
走勢情況屬於預期範圍，但下行啟動點位與預期點位有差異。因此，美元兌瑞士法郎出現明顯反彈走勢。我正準備放棄上周擬定的上行目標區間，但從目前情況看來，價格運行或會進一步觸及該目標區間…這些貨幣對將出現一些劇烈的震盪走勢並且這種狀況會持續一段時間。
受益於大不列顛堡的舒緩，英鎊袖手旁觀其他歐系貨幣的相對震盪運行走勢，並沒有加入組成3人行陣營。反而，價格走勢平穩並且今天極有可能繼續維持橫向運行。這應會觸發價格的進一步下跌。這聽上去好像不錯，下行走勢只會持續一會，但今天的下行極限點位是出現在價格回抽之後。從這一點上看，還沒有出現比較明確的目標點位元…
澳元的下行走勢符合預期，但實際上出現比我想像更多的限制。今天應會出現下行和上行走勢—並按照這個順序出現。
行情走勢情況超出了預期範圍，美元兌日元並沒有如願發展，價格應會延續上行，並帶動歐元兌日元跟隨波動—並可能是比較大幅度的波動，如歐元兌美元能展現相對較強的向上動能。問題的存在和潛在的限制因素事實上就是歐元兌美元需要形成一些基礎浪。目前暫時不確定是否展開快速運行還是展開橫向的複雜修正走勢。總體來講，美元兌日元和歐元兌日元的價格運行仍有上行空間—其走勢更關乎影響修正幅度的大小。
所有情況發展似乎都井然有序—但我們觀察市場已經有一段時間了—市場需要時間去激發啟動…
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Disjointed
It has sure been difficult to generate meaningful forecasts with the market appearing disjointed at times. The follow-through to an estimated target in EURUSD failed completely, managing just a minor new high and just dropped. I had expected that drop – but not from where I expected. Thus, USDCHF obviously rallied. I had just about given up on an upside target I was suggesting last week. Now it looks like reaching it… These pairs are seeing some wild swings and this may well continue.
From the comfort of Fort Britain, the Pound watched its European swinging counterparts but decided not to join a ménage à trois. Instead, it set down a table and decided to camp for most of the day in a sideways move. That should trigger a fall-out to the downside. This may sound good and it will be only for a while, but there is a downside limit for today followed by a pullback. At this point in time the problem is that there are no real clear targets…
The Aussie saw losses as expected, but actually more limited than I had imagined. Today should see both losses and gains – and in that order.
That brings us over to my neck of the woods with USDJPY not quite developing as I hoped but should still extend gains that should drag up EURJPY behind it – and may well be quite robust if EURUSD can muster up some energy. The question and potential limiting factor is the fact that EURUSD needs to form some foundation waves. Whether this is quick or decided to have a sideways complex correction is the unknown. Overall, it should still see upside progress in both USDJPY and EURJPY – it’s more a matter of the length of corrections.
Everything seems to be in order – but as we’ve seen in this market for some while – it can take time to stoke up the engine…
Good trading
Ian Copsey