英倫金融：市場行情走勢預測

慢，慢 - 快 - 慢，慢...
對於美元指數昨天出現下跌幅度有限的情況並不感到奇怪。大多數情況下，美元兌瑞士法郎的整體價格運行傾向於與4小時的價格均衡雲圖抗爭—很神奇—價格能維持美元的上行預期，雖然是個令人痛苦的緩慢進展過程。4小時雲圖狀況形成阻力區間，應能維持前半天，但我懷疑後半天的時間裡，價格運行將出現再次測試雲層阻力的情況，我們需要關注價格能否成功突破壓制。
其他的一切預期如常，所有的貨幣對的價格形態結構發展良好。昨天曾出現一些突破現象，但後續的走勢發展應該是符合預期的，英國退歐公投，將會是價格緩慢發展的一個主要原因，這與過去1-2個月的情況相類似。似乎，最可能的是，6月23日的投票將會觸發價格的趨勢發展—但估計很難有出人意料的情況出現……
就剩下美元兌日元可以考慮操作了。對此貨幣對我感到有點沮喪。行情走勢看起來似乎仍有上行的風險，但應該是相對有限的，因此價格會延續下行到更低點位並應能令歐元兌日元在本周剩下的時間內維持修正走勢。所以，當逐漸靠近週末的時候，需要更多地關注美元兌日元的走勢情況。
最後，澳元的反彈走勢完美符合預期—觸及下行目標僅2個點上方的位置。該貨幣對也受其4小時價格均衡雲圖壓制，昨日價格隨後從高點回落。不過，用不了多久，價格將會突破壓制站上雲端，展開進一步上行。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Slow, slow – quick – slow, slow…
It was no surprise to see limited losses in the Dollar yesterday. For the most part, prices tended to battle with the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds throughout the pairs I cover with the exception of USDCHF that – almost miraculously – managed to maintain the Dollar upside even if it was a painfully slow process. The barrier, formed by the 4-hour Clouds, should hold for the first half of the day but I suspect by the second half there should be a retest of the Clouds and that’s when we need to observe whether breaks are seen.
As things stand as they are, all the pairs appear to be developing quite well. Once we have gotten past yesterday’s limits the follow-through should be quite healthy although, given the Brexit referendum, there will be a general slowness to the development rather similar to the past 1-2 months. It seems, most likely, that it will be the 23rd June vote that will trigger the next trend – but that’s hardly a surprise…
This leaves us playing with USDJPY. I have been a little frustrated with this pair. It does seem to still have some upside risk but should be limited and therefore will be subject to a move lower that should keep EURJPY held in a corrective phase for the rest of the week. Therefore, much focus needs to be applied to USDJPY as we move into the weekend.
Finally, the Aussie recovered perfectly – from just 2 points above my downside target. This pair was also restricted by its 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud and has drifted back from yesterday’s high. However, this should – before long – manage to battle itself back above the Cloud to provide for further gains.
Good trading
Ian Copsey