英倫金融：沒有非農資料公佈的“非農日”--行情走勢預測

有些奇怪…沒有非農資料的公佈，有幾條資訊提示，非農資料在我休春假期間的4月1日那天已經公佈了。說真的，我不太關注基本面資訊唯獨非農資料的公佈令我分心。我也知道非農資料的公佈通常不會在每個月的1號公佈：
“每個月的第一個星期五（或有時在第二個星期五，當第一個週五是當月第一天）。”
似乎這是一個愚人節玩笑…
從很多方面來看，資料的公佈並沒有帶來影響，我仍保持原有的詳盡分析。但是，歐元兌美元和美元兌瑞士法郎維持了8天的盤整區間，也是時候需要突破了。即使英鎊兌美元已經加入不在乎的陣型。這使我們需要維持中立態度並等待價格破位。但是，外匯方面可能會跟隨美元指數相類似的橫向整理區間的破位元情況。
澳元的反彈走勢發展基本符合預期，但並不完全如我所想。行情走勢給我留下了一個小疑問。懷疑將會出現看跌成分，但應會維持在上行的範圍內。僅當價格下一步運行出現後才能找出解決的方案…
在日元貨幣對當中，出現了預期的反彈並已完成了一個價格腿，行情似乎需要出現修正或者出現另外一次反彈，或者可能是先出現橫向整理走勢修正然後再出現反彈。目前看走勢情況並沒有迫切展現趨勢方向…
預祝擁有獲利豐厚的交易周
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
The Non NFP
Well, that was strange… No NFP and several messages saying that it occurred on the 1st April during my Spring Break. Seriously, I never look at fundamentals but allow for the NFP reluctantly as a volatile distraction. I also know that the NFP release is not normally announced on the 1st of the month:
“On the first Friday of every month (or sometimes on the second Friday when the first Friday is the first of the month.)”
An April Fools joke it seems…
In many ways, it hasn’t made any impact and I remain with the analysis that I have been detailing. However, it is about time that EURUSD and USDCHF break out of the range of the past 8 days. Even GBPUSD joined the “Oh bother, who cares a damn” attitude. It leaves us with a neutral status quo and awaiting a break. However, that may well occur if Forex follows a break from a similar sideways range in the U.S. Indices.
The Aussie rallied as expected, but not how I had expected. It leaves a slight doubt in my mind as to the next outcome. I suspect it will start the day on a bearish basis but should end back on the upside. Only after the next move will there be some resolution to the outcome…
In the JPY pairs we saw the expected rally and having completed one leg both appear to require a correction and another rally or possibly a correction in the form of a sideways move and another rally. It doesn’t really scream out “I want a trend” at this point…
Have a profitable week
Ian Copsey