英倫金融：混合型價格結構—行情走勢預測

昨天需要解決些棘手的問題。其中有些問題出現在不太清晰的價格運行區域，而有些問題帶來了較令人意外的結果。這些情況構成了較低級別噪音的複雜性，使我不得不保持謹慎態度，但從另一方面來講這些複雜性發展也是超出了我的設想範圍。
作為分析的根基，歐系貨幣對繼續橫向整理走勢發展--雖然美元兌瑞士法郎創出了新低。兩者的走勢相關性較穩定，之前的長期盤整區間運行情況令人覺得沮喪。但是，現在價格的運行應能順應我前兩天所提出的發展預期。
其他的歐系貨幣對，英鎊兌美元的價格運行表現令人震驚。1.4052支撐位的下破令我有點目瞪口呆。遊戲規則的改變也衍生出更多複雜的情況。當然價格也可以按自己的運行方式發展，不需要跟隨歐系貨幣對的步伐，但從結構的情況來看，允許一個較大的價格回撤及目標投影區間出現。較棘手的狀況將延續，目前不確定出現修正和背離的區間，並且從現在開始最好是單獨看待該貨幣對的發展情況。當然結構的發展路徑有點曲折，但主要的問題是源於回撤與投影目標區間出現的考慮。
澳元的價格回撤走勢超出了預期的回撤水準和複雜程度。價格運行大致與歐元兌美元相關，但也有出現獨有的走勢方式的時候。結果似乎是已經出現了修正走勢而不是一個下行推動走勢，這意味著進一步的上行可能。我傾向於認為，這可能暗示該貨幣對現在相比歐元兌美元來講，與英鎊兌美元有更多的關聯性…
最後，日元貨幣對…缺乏回撤更高位的價格上行走勢情況與原來的預期產生差距，主要因為在區域內已經出現了相當規模的下跌。我發現在小時級別出現了較強的看漲背離信號—即使日線級別也有出現信號，但在4小時圖級別仍是較為消極的價格走勢量能信號。我認為今天最好是讓市場自行指示方向。歐元兌日元延續跌勢的情況，並沒有提供較有價值和説明的參考資訊，但意味著這個交叉貨幣對基本是偏空走勢—不過可能今天的情況還不太明顯。我感覺更大可能的是出現橫向震盪整理的風險。
祝交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
A mixed bag of structures
There were some tricky problems to overcome yesterday. Some of these were in areas where I could see some ambiguity but there were other – quite surprising – outcomes. Such has been the complexity of lower degree noise that made me cautious on one hand but also those that I had just not envisaged.
As a base to work from, the Continental Europeans continued their basic sideways move – although USDCHF made a new low. These two have been relatively consistent but the long sideways range was quite frustrating. However, it should now follow the outcome I have indicated should develop for the past two days.
The other European, GBPUSD, was the shocker. The break below 1.4052 made my jaw gape. This is a game changer but does also generate a more complicated outcome. Of course, it can make its own way without following the Continentals but the structure does permit a wide range of pullbacks and projections. This is going to be a little bit tricky not knowing where there will be correlation or divergence and is best considered as an independent pair for now.
Certainly the structure is a tiny bit difficult and that’s the main issue in terms of retracement versus projections…
The Aussie pulled back above my retracement level and complicates. It has been roughly correlating with EURUSD but has its independent moments. The outcome appears to be that we have seen a correction rather than an impulsive decline and that suggests further upside. I tend to feel that this could imply more correlation with GBPUSD rather than EURUSD for now…
Finally, the JPY pairs… Well, the lack of any pullback higher is pulling me away from the original view, mainly because of the already sizeable decline in one area. I note a strong hourly bullish divergence – even daily also – but still negative momentum in the 4-hour chart. I think it will be best to allow the market to lay down a pointer today. That EURJPY extended losses is not really contributing any strong information doesn’t help either but it does suggest that the cross is still basically bearish – but may not be so today. More likely I feel there is a risk of a sideways move in the cross.
Good trading
Ian Copsey