英倫金融：潛在複雜走勢的一天—市場行情預測

美元指數昨天的上漲幅度符合預期。歐元兌美元的走勢也觸及了目標區間的中部位置，但美元兌瑞士法郎卻未能到達我所希望到達的目標點位元。目前行情發展正處於面臨選擇方向的階段—一個是有限運行空間的方向，而另一個是有更大運行空間，某程度更傾向於趨勢的發展方向。（最近沒有特別多的趨勢走勢…）這或可能適合亞盤交易時段保持不溫不火的走勢情況，一直持續到歐盤交易時段開始。因此，我們需要保持小心謹慎一段時間，或許從週末的市場情況能感受到交易員的生活氣息。
即使是其他的歐系貨幣，英鎊兌美元，價格也出現下跌，隨後出現反抽。這與歐洲大陸現在
有兩個選擇方向的狀況相吻合。毫無疑問，這將會持續到歐盤交易時段開始，才能看出市場發展的意向…
美元兌日元昨天並沒有持續走高—僅僅是勉強地往下修正。即便這樣也仍會有價格出現再次下探的風險，但大致來講，我希望價格恢復漲勢，維持歐元兌美元和美元兌瑞士法郎之間的平衡，歐元兌日元的運行空間相對有限，輕微上漲，輕微下跌。這意味著交叉貨幣對從某些角度上講，將進一步下行測試122.53低位。因此，需要觀察兩大重要貨幣對之間的平衡情況，並確定預期最終結果的發展信號—歐元兌日元必須回撤運行到更高位置。但是，走勢發展需要先滿足其自身結構發展的要求。
最後，對於澳元…我只能說走勢有點“奇怪”。價格上沖至0.7736.這個點位元是之前提示的潛在目標點位元。走勢看起來似乎不錯，但與預期的潛在結構發展似乎不吻合。沒有出現小時級別的看跌背離，但相對溫和的背離信號出現在4小時級別，價格走勢沒有表現太迫切的發展意向…前期的預期情況已經結束，我在考慮另一個備選結構的發展，價格似乎會選擇下行，或者可能需要更多的運行空間。這個結構的發展，需要更多的資訊來輔助研判。
祝週末愉快。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Potentially a tricky day
The Dollar made gains yesterday, much as expected. This reached in to the middle of the target in EURUSD but USDCHF failed to reach the target I had hoped for. We’re now at a stage where it can go in either direction – one side limited and the other with greater room for a decent trend. (Not that trends are particularly bountiful these days…) This will probably suit Asia that tends to maintain a neutral stance until the European session begins. Thus, we’re going to have tread water for a while, maybe into the weekend if there is little sign of human traders’ life.
Even the “other” European, GBPUSD, managed a decent day of losses but has come up against a pullback of follow-through decision. This tends to match with the Continentals in terms of the options that are available on both sides of the market. No doubt it will take until the European session begins to see what the market wants to do first…
USDJPY didn’t provide the follow-through higher yesterday – well, only marginally – and then corrected lower. Even here there is a risk of an additional dip but overall I’ll expect it to begin to rally but there remains a balance between EURUSD and USDJPY that saw limited moves in EURJPY, down a bit and up a bit. This does tend to suggest the cross will – at some point – move lower to retest the 122.53 low. Therefore, we’ll have to observe the balance between the two major pairs to ensure that the expected final outcome develops – that EURJPY must push back higher at some point. However, we need to satisfy its own individual structure first.
Finally, the Aussie… What can I say? “Strange.” It rallied to 0.7736. That’s one point from a potential target I had been suggesting. Sounds good but I the underlying structure doesn’t seem to be correct. There’s no hourly bearish divergence but a modest 4-hour divergence but nothing that particularly screams out … “it’s done.” For the alternative structure I was considering, it appears to have broken down or maybe needs more development. This needs more information.
Have a great weekend
Ian Copsey