英倫金融：走勢穩定的一天--市場走勢預測

總的來講，我對市場昨天的走勢發展情況表示滿意。之前提及過4小時價格均衡雲圖壓制了美元的上行，這種情況也同樣出現在歐元兌美元，英鎊兌美元和美元兌瑞士法郎的盤面上，但美元兌瑞士法郎的價格運行有出現上行突破上方壓制的情況。這往往意味著歐元兌美元和英鎊兌美元也會有潛在的第二次上行試探，價格嘗試穿越雲圖壓制，同時結合價格運行的量能考慮，需要警惕今天或出現破位的機會。即便如此，這些價格運行情況也是堅定走勢方向的基礎。
對於英鎊兌美元，從1.3835低位開始展開跌勢修復的走勢情況，令我感到有些擔心。一般情況下，對於正常修正行情來講，這種價格運行情況對於當下價格所處的位置來講，顯得過於強勢，懷疑不久之後價格會出現下跌，我還是不太相信當下價格會有如此強烈的運行表現。或許這是一個需要避免操作的貨幣對。
澳元延續上行的走勢情況符合預期，但之後行情將陷入一個更震盪多變的走勢當中—基本上仍然保持上行方向但並不是強勢上行。我傾向於建議先觀望，等待合適時機再考慮進場。
昨天美元兌日元出現了另一個選項發展情況。對此我有一些保留意見，價格運行確實突破了之前鎖定的支撐位。在這種情況下，可以允許歐元兌日元進一步下行到更低點位，但在今天行情結束之前，價格在稍後時段會上行到更高點位。結合美元兌日元展現的明顯弱勢，價格有下行的風險但目前還沒有打破下方支撐。不過，我暫時還沒發現美元兌日元比歐元兌美元出現更強的漲勢信號。因此需要謹慎處理…
交易順利。
伊恩•科普塞
英倫金融研究部高級顧問
國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威
原文：
Another steady day?
Overall I am quite satisfied with how things developed yesterday. I mentioned the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds were capping the Dollar and this continued to be the case for EURUSD and GBPUSD but USDCHF managed to break above. This tends to suggest the potential for EURUSD and GBPUSD to have a second attempt to reverse through these Clouds and with momentum conditions tending to provide the opportunity for a break today we should be on alert. Even then, this is basically building the foundation for a firmer directional move.
I do have some concerns over GBPUSD that extended the recovery from the 1.3835 low. This appears to be too strong for a normal correction in the current position and while I suspect we’ll begin to see losses before too long, I’m not yet convinced that it will provoke a strong reaction. This is probably a pair to avoided…
The Aussie extended the upside as expected but we should be heading into a period of more whippy and erratic development – still basically on the upside but hardly in a robust trend. I would tend to suggest holding off for the right time to pick a trade.
The alternative outcome in USDJPY developed yesterday. I had some reservations here and it did break the support level I pointed out. This allowed EURJPY to drift lower but then later move back higher towards the end of the day. With the apparent weakness being displayed in USDJPY there are some downside risks but it hasn’t yet quite broken down. However, I can’t see any gains in USDJPY being stronger than EURUSD. There is therefore still need for caution…
Good trading
Ian Copsey